Russian banks to adopt stricter reserve rules than West

In an announcement earlier today, the head of Russia's Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, stated that Russia's banks will be forced to comply with the new Basel III requirements starting on January 1, 2014. Basel III is the newest in a series of financial controls designed to strengthen the balance sheets of banks, in order to hopefully prevent any serious or systemic financial crises arising from a lack of an adequate reserve ratio. (For more detail on the Basel III rules themselves, see this downloadable report from KPMG from 2011, and for more recent news visit this section of the WSJ website).

While this many in America feel the new reserve requirements of Basel III are too stringent, and will harm not the U.S. economy, in particular the financial and housing sectors, in Russia the Basel III rules will actually be more severe than in the West. Ms. Nabiullina announced that the new Central Bank requirements for common equity will be 5 percent, capital assets at 5.5 percent (with an increase to 6 percent beginning January 1, 2015), and aggregate capital at 10 percent, according to an article from Russia Beyond the Headlines (RBTH). RBTH noted that "these requirements will be stricter than the Western ones, which provide for the adequacy of common equity at the level of 4.5 percent."

Basel III to be implemented in Russia - and then some. Image http://goldenageofgaia.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/basel-III.jpg

One analyst at VTB Bank, one of the largest banks in Russia, doesn't think that the Russian banking system will have much trouble meeting the tougher rules--mainly because the financial system in Russia is very different, in general, than in Europe or the United States,and credit rules are already tighter. Asset structure in Russian banks is still relatively basic and static, and there is a less favorable attitude towards highly leveraged bank balance sheets. Thus, the medicine of Basel III will be somewhat easier for Russian banks to swallow than their Western counterparts. In combination with the monetary policy of the Russian (and Ukrainian) central bank, and the general aversion to inflation, banks' more rigid credit policies are seen by some as limiting the potential growth of the Russian economy. At the moment, though, the priority throughout Europe, the US, and Russia seems to be stability rather than growth or profits.

However, it is important to note that the new effective date of January 1, 2014 for the Basel III rules is later than the original date, set in October of 2013. Svetlana Pavlova, assistant vice president and analyst at Moody’s, thinks that shifting the dates of Basel III’s implementation in Russia bodes ill for the country's financial sector. Also, the lowering of the capital assets level from the original 7.5% to the new 5.5%, while still strict, is seen by some as a matter of concern.

On the whole, the announcement about the Basel III “In general, capitalization is higher in our banks than in European ones. And this is correct: Considering the higher volatility of the Russian economy and tempo of growth of the banking sector, our banks need to be stronger to match the level of risk,” said Pavlova.

Basel III: rebuilding the capital of the global financial system. Image http://www.eamcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Basel-III-capital.jpg

For more on this story, read the full article from RBTH here: http://rbth.ru/business/2013/07/22/banks_to_adopt_basel_iii_standards_in_2014_28277.html

A Day in the Life of a Russian Oligarch

If you follow business news about Russia, Ukraine, or post-Communist Eastern Europe in general, you've no doubt read a lot about oligarchs. But who are they, really, and what do they do besides amass wealth using government support and/or corruption?

Business Insider has picked up and shared an interesting interview with Sergei Veremeenko, one of Russia's most famous and successful oligarchs (net worth estimated at $1.4bln, and he's also married to Miss World 2006). Like the majority of oligarchs, Veremeenko made most of his millions from...you guessed it, natural resources (read: oil) and finance. He was born in the oil-rich Ufa area and thus had a natural career path into energy, but then diversified in 1992 when he partnered with fellow billionaire (and fellow Sergei) Sergei Pugachev to found the International Industrial Bank.

Check out the 8+ minute-long video interview by VICE at this link: http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml

Where is a BMW like Bitcoin?...In Argentina

While this isn't exactly recent news, in May Bloomberg ran an article about the economic effects of the rampant devaluation of the Argentinian peso, and how Argentinians are buying more and more luxury cars such as BMWs, Mini-Coopers, and Land Rovers as stores of value and hedges against inflation. Definitely gives a different perspective to car ownership!

    BMW                       =                    BITCOIN?

I was fascinated when I read this for the first time a few weeks ago, so I thought I'd share it here on my blog:

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BMWs Gaining Bitcoin-Like Appeal as CPI Hedge: Argentina Credit

By Camila Russo and Eliana Raszewski - May 14, 2013

Argentines are buying more BMWs, Jaguars and other luxury cars as a store of value as inflation decimates their deposits and pummels the nation’s bonds.

Purchases of cars from Germany’s Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) and Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc, owned by India’s Tata Motors Ltd. (TTMT), jumped the most in April among brands sold in Argentina. The sales were part of a 30 percent surge in car sales from a year earlier that was the biggest increase in 20 months, according to the Argentine Car Producers Association. While used-car prices rose in line with inflation last year, or about 25 percent, peso bonds tied to consumer prices fell 13 percent. The drop was the biggest in emerging markets.

Car sales in Argentina increased by the most in almost two years last month as a ban on buying dollars made Argentines turn to vehicles to protect savings against the fastest inflation in the Western Hemisphere after Venezuela. Luxury models are becoming more attractive because they are imported at the official dollar rate, said Gonzalo Dalmasso, vehicle industry analyst at Buenos Aires research company Abeceb.com. Argentines with savings in dollars are able to purchase cars at half the cost by trading in the unofficial currency market.

“I’m seeing a lot of people buying high-end cars for the first time, trading Minis for middle of the market models,” Ignacio Monteserin, a salesman at BMW’s Mini Cooper dealership in Buenos Aires’s Libertador Avenue, said. “It’s become very convenient to own luxury cars in general because of the big gap in the exchange rates and you get to have a quality good that will preserve the value of your money with time.”

Surging Sales

Car sales in Argentina surged 30 percent in April from a year earlier to 88,323 units, the fastest increase since August 2011 and the second-highest on record, according to a car association known as Adefa.

Argentines have bought 1,588 BMWs so far this year, more than double the amount they purchased in the same period last year, according to Argentina’s Car Dealers Association, or Acara. Jaguar and Land Rover sales increased by 200 percent and 278 percent respectively, the data show.

Mini Cooper sales rose 54 percent in January to April from a year earlier. A Mini Coupe costs 194,000 pesos, or $37,072 at the official rate of 5.2380 per dollar. It costs $19,400 at the parallel rate at 10 pesos per dollar, cutting the price in half for Argentines who have savings in dollars and go to the black market to sell them for pesos. The same model in the U.S. costs $22,150.

Bitcoin, Gold

Argentines are buying cars, gold and even virtual currency such as bitcoin as they look for ways to preserve their savings as the peso is forecast to fall 17 percent this year.

The peso in the illegal currency market, known as the blue market locally, weakened to a record 10.45 pesos per dollar last week. This means Argentines with peso salaries who buy dollars in the black market to protect against a weakening of the local currency and 25 percent inflation lose about half of their money.

Inflation-linked bonds don’t protect against rising prices because they’re tied to the official price index, which at 10.6 percent is less than half the estimates of independent economists. They have dropped 3.4 percent this year after losing 13 percent in 2012.

Argentina’s official price index has been questioned by economists since 2007, when then-President Nestor Kirchner changed staff at the National Statistics Institute. The International Monetary Fund in February censured the country for not improving its inflation measurement.

Bond Losses

Argentina’s dollar-denominated bonds aren’t a better alternative as a U.S. legal dispute on repayment of the nation’s defaulted debt caused average yields to soar to 13.92 percent, almost three times the average in emerging markets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The notes have plunged 10 percent his year.

The rate banks pay for 30-day deposits of more than 1 million pesos was 15.38 percent on May 10.

“The government takes away their salaries and deposits through inflation and negative interest rates,” said Jorge Remes Lenicov, a former Economy Minister from January 2002 to April 2002, when the country abandoned a decade-long peso peg to the dollar.

The extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine government dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries narrowed 20 basis points to 1,171 basis points at 1:27 p.m. in Buenos Airs, according to JPMorgan’s EMBI Global index.

Default Swaps

The cost to insure Argentine debt against default within the next five years through credit default swaps rose 107 basis points to 2,770 basis points, according to data compiled by CMA Ltd.

While inflation and a gap in the exchange rates is fueling sales, the same reasons are also deterring investment in the car industry, said Cristiano Rattazzi, President of Fiat Auto Argentina SA.

“There are no certainties,” Rattazzi, who is also head of the car makers association, said in a phone interview in Buenos Aires. “It’s a very unstable environment. What if they devalue? What if there are multiple exchange rates? All of these questions and high inflation are putting a big break on investment.”

The Argentine government in March 2011 ordered car importers to match their imports with exports or investment of equal value to boost the trade surplus.

‘Enjoy It’

The decree prompted BMW to export rice and Porsche Automobil Holding SE to begin exporting olives and Malbec red wine. Shizuoka Subaru Motor Co. agreed to export chicken feed, Hyundai Motor Co. began sending soy flour to Vietnam and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. (7211) started shipping peanuts.

As Argentines continue to lose purchasing power, cars and other durable goods are temporary solutions to the region’s fastest inflation after Venezuela, said Lenicov.

“There’s nowhere to put your money in,” Lenicov said. “The reasoning is you lose money almost anywhere because of inflation, so if you buy a car, at least you get to enjoy it.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Camila Russo in Buenos Aires at crusso15@bloomberg.net; Eliana Raszewski in Buenos Aires at eraszewski@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Papadopoulos at papadopoulos@bloomberg.net; Michael Tsang at mtsang1@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-05-14/bmws-gaining-bitcoin-like-appeal-as-cpi-hedge-argentina-credit.html

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Energy in Ukraine: Exxon to spend $735mln on new Black Sea wells

According to RIA Novosti and Bloomberg, Texas-based oil company ExxonMobil (largest in the world by revenue) will spend $735mln to drill two new deep-water oil wells in the Black Sea, off the coast of southern Ukraine. $400mln of that money will go to cover the cost of the drilling, while $335mln has been ear-marked for the Ukrainian government as a "signing bonus," according to a minister in Ukraine's energy ministry.

Photo credit RIA Novosti.

Smells like a big of political palm-greasing to me. I'm not sure whether to applaud at such a seemingly open admission of corruption, or to shake my head and wag my finger.

Either way, according to RIA Novosti, "The Black Sea is relatively undeveloped by the global oil industry. It has fewer than 100 oil wells, whereas the North Sea has 7,000, according to Bloomberg. A recently opened gas field off the coast of Romania, now yielding 630 million cubic feet a day (17.8 million cubic meters) has fueled interest in the area."

Here's more information about that "recently opened gas field" off Romania, also in the Black Sea and not far from Ukraine: http://www.energy365.com/devenergypedia/romania-exxonmobil-and-petrom-grant-romgaz-10-option-on-offshore-midia-block-in-black-sea/. ExxonMobil recently granted the Romanian state-owned firm Romgaz a 10% share in operations in the offshore oil and gas blocks there.

Current ExxonMobil operations in Black Sea off coast of Romania. Photo credit: http://www.energy365.com/devenergypedia/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Romania-ExxonMobil-and-Petrom-grant-Romgaz-10-per-cent-option-on-offshore-Midia-Block-in-Black-Sea.jpg

The agreement in Ukraine, meanwhile, is due to be finalized later this year. It should be an interesting development to watch, in an increasingly interesting and active Ukrainian energy market. Not only are oil exploration and production increasing, but shale gas could soon play a huge role as well; and of course all of this has very serious political undertones and effects. Exxon, and all American energy companies and investors, should keep a weather eye on the political horizon in Ukraine.

Russia invests in California tech, while American hotels invest in Russia

It's been a busy week for me here in Kiev, and between a stomach illness, my usual Russian classes and internship work, and preparing to take the Test of Russian as a Foreign Language (TORFL) exam earlier today, I unfortunately haven't had much time to blog. From now on, I'm hoping to start posting regularly every Monday, Thursday, and Saturday/Sunday.

With that being said, there's been no shortage of interesting business news from Russia and Eastern Europe lately, especially with regard to foreign investment and finance. One of the stories that grabbed my attention a few days ago was this piece by RIA Novosti about the recent $12m investment of Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, in California-based tech business Sequent. The Sberbank portion of the deal was led by SBT Venture Capital, the venture cap arm of the Russian bank.

Sberbank Russia

Sberbank joined with California-based investors to lead a new round of financing for Sequent, which, according to its official website, "combines expertise in the payments industry with innovation in the mobile ecosystem to offer next-generation credential management solutions." Elaborating further about their corporate identity and mission, Sequent says their "software and services platform enables consumers to easily and securely download payment cards and other credentials to their mobile devices. Consumers use those credentials to make payments and access information and offers from mobile network operators, retailers and financial institutions."

Basically, Sequent makes credit-card processing IT systems. I'm not sure whether Sberbank is hoping to acquire some of their technology for use in their banking systems in Russia, or just sees Sequent as a good investment for the future. Regardless, while this story is already three days old, I thought it was worth posting about, since big Russian investments in American companies (especially California-based tech firms) are a little rare.

Meanwhile, money has been flowing the other direction as well, as many American hotels are pumping money into new projects in Russia. Holiday Inn Express is planning a major expansion in the country between now and 2019, and Hyatt Regency will add a second location in Moscow. Perhaps most notably, the luxury Four Seasons Hotel and Resort opened its first location in St. Petersburg this week, with plans to add a second in Moscow next year.

Four Seasons in St. Petersburg.

In general, international tourism to Russia seems to be on the rise right now, and will only increase in the near future with the upcoming Winter Olympics in Sochi, and the 2018 World Cup in Russia as well. These new projects seem to be a good play by American hotel companies, who are planning ahead for the upsurge in Western visitors.

For these and other great stories about business in Russia, check out the RIA Novosti Business page on a regular basis.

Breaking 1,000 Hits

Over the past week, Send Me the Cabbage has surpassed 1,000 pageviews! It's a minor first milestone that I had expected would take much longer to achieve, but thank you to all of my readers thus far.

Some interesting facts about my audience thus far...

The top 5 pageviews by country have been:
1) United States
2) Russia
3) Germany
4) Ukraine
5) Netherlands

While readership from the U.S. has easily dwarfed my international audience thus far, I am pretty proud of the fact that I've already had over 100 visits from Russia and over 60 from Ukraine.

Also, the top 3 most popular posts on SMTC thus far:
1) International Banking: Regulation, a Capital Idea?
2) Bookshelf: The Ascent of Money
3) Ukraine Seeks Privatization of Gas Pipelines

Not a bad start to what is still very much a personal hobby and side-project of mine, and considering I often don't have time to write an entry every day. Looking forward to even more views moving forward!

It's a Gas: Rosneft to acquire Itera; Gazprom ups 2013 European forecast

Lots of action in the Russian energy market lately, besides the recent press about the formation of the $20 billion investment fund L1 Energy by oligarchs Fridman and Khan (see my previous post about that here). The two most important developments concern Rosneft's purchase of Itera, and also Gazprom's more positive forecast for the European energy market--both of which should be cause for relection on the Russian energy market as a whole.

Rosneft Office in Moscow (photo Upstreamonline.com)

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Russian energy company Rosneft, which currently owns a majority share in Itera Oil and Gas, announced yesterday that it will acquire the 49% of Itera it does not already own for $2.9 billion. The deal will take place between Rosneft, led by CEO Igor Sechin, and Itera Holdings, Inc., a natural resources company controlled by another Igor, Igor Makarov. The move apparently has the blessing of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and will allow Rosneft to drastically expand its natural gas production abilities, which are currently only 1/10th the level of major state-owned rival Gazprom.

Putin and Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosneft (photo Maxim Shimetov)

Rosneft announced a few months ago that it intended to double natural gas production by 2020, and the acquisition of the remainder of Itera is a major step in that direction, following closely on the heels of the $55 billion deal earlier this year that saw Rosneft buy TNK-BP to become the world's largest publicly traded oil company in terms of production. Reuters has also reported that Rosneft is lobbying the Russian government for the right to export LNG; currently Gazprom has exclusive export rights.

Like many stories, I originally found out about this one via DealBook.
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Meanwhile, aforementioned Russian state-owned energy titan Gazprom revised its 2013 Europe gas export forecast upwards by 10 percent, to more than 160 billion cubic meters, and announced plans to triple its share on the LNG market to 15 percent, according to website Russia Beyond the Headlines. The gas monopoly stated that exports to Europe have been up by more than 10% on the year so far, and that by the close of 2013 Gazprom hopes to have exported more than 160 bcm (5.6 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas.

Also according to Gazprom, Turkey may soon surpass Germany to become the largest importer of Russian natural gas, since the Turkish energy market has been growing rapidly as of late. However, Turkish gas usage was down in the first few months of 2013, and thus Gazprom's forecast may be a bit too optimistic. Yet there will certainly be no shortage of supply to meet future demand, most of which Russia may be able to find in Asia.

Last year, according to The Moscow Times, "just 7 percent of Russia's gas exports were sold to Asian consumers, all in the form of liquid natural gas, or LNG, from the Sakhalin II project. But Russia's gas exports to Asia will expand dramatically if the construction of two new LNG terminals goes ahead: Gazprom's Vladivostok and Novatek's Yamal projects. Rosneft also plans to build a terminal in Sakhalin. If these three projects are realized by 2020, Russia's LNG capacity would increase from 10 million tons per year to about 45 million tons, or to an amount equal to 18 percent of global LNG exports in 2012."

LNG supply and demand are both set to dramatically increase around the globe, and Russia will face competition from a growing Australian energy sector, as well as the much-heralded LNG boom that has started in North America, especially the United States. Gazprom--and now Rosneft as well--will need to move quickly to sufficiently expand LNG production in order to not miss out on a prime energy opportunity in the near future.
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On a macro-economic level, the Rosneft-Itera deal and the slow expansion of Gazprom into natural gas and LNG could signal the start of a gradual large-scale shift in Russian energy policy towards a more broadly diversified approach that includes natural gas AND oil. With global demand for oil possibly peaking in the next few years, according to The Economist and other sources, Russia needs to move away from its traditional disproportionate emphasis on oil production and export as the foundation of the Russian energy sector, and instead focus on fully participating in the unfolding gas boom. Doing so will ensure Russia remains competitive and profitable in both the Western European energy market, where a great deal of Russian energy currently goes, and in the shifting global energy market as well. Expansion of energy exports to Asia is an absolute must to bolster long-term economic growth. Russia will likely remain overly dependent on oil and gas as the bedrock of its economic prosperity, but hopefully there will be at least some intra-sector diversification within energy moving forward.

The future of Russian energy: diversification or death? (Image from Foreign Affairs)

To visit the websites mentioned or cited in this article, follow these links:
New York Times - DealBook: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/
Russia Beyond the Headlines: http://rbth.ru/
Moscow Times: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/
Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/
Upstream Online: http://www.upstreamonline.com/

Also, here is a link to an interesting article about Russian oil that Foreign Affairs ran at the end of last year: Putin's Petroleum Problem

Feel free to leave comments or thoughts below.